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Airbus foresees demand for some 25,000 aircraft in the next 20 years
17 September 2009
Demand for larger eco-efficient aircraft
Some
25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion
will be delivered from 2009 to 2028, according to Airbus' latest Global
Market Forecast. Emerging economies, evolving airline networks,
expansion of low cost carriers and the increasing number of mega-cities
as well as traffic growth and the replacement of older less efficient
aircraft with more eco-efficient airliners are factors driving demand
for new aircraft.
Larger aircraft in all size categories are
required to help ease aircraft congestion and to accommodate growth on
existing routes and to achieve more with less. Compared to timescales
for aircraft investment and fleet turnover, economic down cycles are
relatively short and a strong underlying demand for air travel will
drive growth. In 2009, a decline in Revenue Passenger Kilometres
(RPK's) of two per cent is expected to be followed by a rise of 4.6 per
cent in 2010.
The forecast anticipates that in the next 20
years, passenger traffic RPK's will remain resilient to the cyclical
effects of the sector and increase by 4.7 per cent per year or double
in the next 15 years. This will require a demand for almost 24,100 new
passenger aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion. With the replacement of
some 10,000 older passenger aircraft, the world's passenger aircraft
fleet of 100 seats or more will double from some 14,000 today.
Airfreight
tonne kilometres (FTKs) is forecast to increasing annually by 5.2 per
cent. Combined with fleet renewal, this creates a demand for some 3,440
freighters. More than 850 of these are new aircraft valued at US$210
billion, with the remainder converted from passenger aircraft.
"Air
transportation is a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the
world economy," says Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers John
Leahy. "Technology and innovation are key drivers for an eco-efficient
aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of both."
Aviation
also benefits individuals in every region of the world, with the number
growing as aviation prospers. Oxford Economics predicts that in 20
years time, air transport will directly employ 8.5 million people
worldwide and contribute US$1 trillion annually to world GDP. Tourism
and indirect benefits are even bigger.
The greatest demand for
passenger aircraft will be from airlines in Asia-Pacific and emerging
markets. The region that includes the People's Republic of China and
India accounts for 31 per cent of the total, followed by Europe (25 per
cent) and North America (23 per cent). In terms of domestic passenger
markets, India (10 per cent) and China (7.9 per cent) will have the
fastest growth over the next 20 years. The largest by volume of
traffic, will remain domestic US.
Air traffic growth,
increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental responsibilities
and airport congestion are increasingly influencing airlines to
capitalise on the benefits of larger aircraft, particularly within
aircraft families by minimising training and maintenance costs.
For
example, in the US in 2007, airlines wasted 740 million gallons of fuel
in congestion delays, equivalent to 32,000 London to New York flights.
Bigger aircraft with reduced CO2 emissions are a solution. In the last
10 years aircraft have increased in size by three per cent and Airbus
predicts that by 2028, the average aircraft will be 26 per cent bigger
than today.
Airbus foresees demand for Very Large Aircraft
(VLA) seating more than 400 passengers, like the A380, at above 1,700.
Valued at US$571 billion, this represents 19 per cent by value of
passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries, or seven per cent of
aircraft units. Of these, nearly 1,318 will be needed to link the
world's most dynamic destination 'mega' cities, which are steadily
increasing in number and size. This inevitably leads to a greater
concentration of traffic. More than 50 per cent of the world’s VLA's
will be operated by airlines in the Asia Pacific region.
In
the twin-aisle aircraft segment (seating from 250 to 400 passengers),
some 6,250 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered in
the next 20 years, valued at some US$1,300 billion, or 42 per cent by
value, 25 per cent by units. Of these, 4,240 aircraft will be small
twin-aisle (250 to 300 seater) and about 2,010 intermediate twin aisles
(350 to 400 seater). These segments are covered by the A330/A340
family. From 2013, the A350XWB family will cover the entire spectrum of
twin aisle market requirements.
In the single-aisle segment,
almost 17,000 aircraft worth some US$1,200 billion or 39 per cent by
value, 68 per cent by units, will be delivered in the next 20 years.
This is an increase over previous forecasts due to the emergence of
low-cost carriers and increased route liberalisation and an
accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia.
Note to editors:
The
Airbus Global Market Forecast gives a detailed analysis of world air
transport developments, covering 300 distinct passenger and freight
traffic flows, as well as a year-by-year fleet evolution of the world's
aircraft operators, through fleet analysis of nearly 750 passenger
airlines and 190 freighter operators over the next 20 years. In doing
so, the forecast covers aircraft demand from the regional market to the
very largest aircraft available, the A380 today.
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Robinson Helicopter Company Breaks Production Record Again
21 January 2009
Torrance, CA—Robinson Helicopter Company continues to be the world’s leading manufacture of civilian helicopters. Robinson again breaks its own record producing 893 civil helicopters in 2008 surpassing its prior record of 823 set in 2007.
Without question, the R44 is the reason for Robinson’s continuing success and record-breaking numbers. Introduced in 2002, the Raven II, a more powerful version of the original R44 now accounts for 60% of the company’s aircraft sales. The original R44, later designated the Raven I, accounts for roughly 20% of aircraft sales. Finally, the R22 with 164 ships produced in 2008 still maintains its niche in an increasingly competitive market.
Robinson’s focus for 2009 will continue to be product development and maintaining its record-breaking production.
Robinson Helicopter Company is the world’s leading manufacturer of civil helicopters. For additional information about Robinson, visit the website at www.robinsonheli.com.
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Aviation partnership formed
Oregon Institute of Technology has entered into a unique aviation partnership with Central Oregon Community College in Bend, Ore. COCC has blended their two-year aviation degree with fixed-wing (airplane) pilot training offered by Professional Air, and rotary-wing (helicopter) pilot training offered by Leading Edge Aviation, both located at the Bend Municipal Airport.
With the addition of OIT to this partnership, participating students have the option to graduate with a bachelor’s degree in Operations Management from OIT in addition to an associate degree in Aviation Science from COCC. Students will be able to complete the associate degree, professional pilot licensure/certification and bachelor’s degree on the COCC campus in Bend and at the Bend Municipal Airport.
Students may choose from the following Federal Aviation Administration airplane or helicopter certificates:
- Private Pilot; Airplane single and multiengine land, airplane single sea, and/or rotorcraft-helicopter
- Commercial Pilot; Airplane single and multiengine land, airplane single sea, and/or rotorcraft-helicopter
- Instrument Rating; airplane and/or helicopter
- Certified Flight Instructor (CFI); airplane and/or helicopter
- Certified Flight Instrument Instructor (CFII); airplane and/or helicopter
Flight simulator training is conducted using “glass cockpit” technologies which offer easily readable graphical views of key flight indicators such as altitude display and mach speed. FAA approved flight simulators are also used in training.
Graduates of the Operations Management bachelor’s degree program are fully prepared for a career in aviation, including the airlines and helicopter operations in areas such as fire fighting and oil exploration.
Contact John O. Miller, aviation program director at COCC, for more information about the AAS/AS degree at COCC by telephone at 541-318-3736 or e-mail jomiller@cocc.edu. For more information about COCC, visit www.cocc.edu.
Contact Ralph Gibbs, assistant professor of management at OIT, or Charlie Jones, professor of management at OIT, for more information about the bachelor’s degree in Operations Management. Gibbs may be contacted by telephone at 541-725-5929 or via e-mail ralph.gibbs@oit.edu. Jones may be reached by telephone at 541-885-1377 or via e-mail at charlie.jones@oit.edu. For more information about OIT, visit www.oit.edu.